How monetary policy influences mortgage decisions

Variable or fixed? It's the question homeowners and homebuyers ask most often and inevitably elicits an unsatisfying answer.

Whether it's worth paying the penalty to terminate a fixed-rate mortgage to obtain the lower rates available on variable-rate mortgages is a calculation that forces assumptions about future monetary policy even the Bank of Canada is hedging its bets on.

Over the past few years, the focus of monetary policy has been inflation control. What this has to do with mortgages is that the principal tool for controlling inflation is the interest rate lever. The bank has set an inflation target of two per cent and interest rates are raised or lowered to increase or reduce borrowing, which in turn stimulates or depresses demand. In this way, the bank ensures demand doesn't overwhelm the economy's capacity to satisfy it and inflation is held in check.

Since December 2007, as the economy has slid into recession, the central bank, in concert with other industrialized nations, has cut its overnight lending rate by 400 basis points to 0.5 per cent in an effort to bolster demand. Clearly, it can't go much lower.

The bank has also been trying to encourage lending by injecting liquidity into the financial system. There has been concern that this infusion of money will be inflationary, raising the threat of stagflation -- inflation with no economic growth.

However, the bank is not "printing money" to carry out this task. Rather, it is purchasing assets, such as commercial paper and bankers' acceptances, from financial institutions that have been unable to trade them because of tight credit markets and replacing them with cash or more liquid government securities.

These purchase and resale agreements are temporary and unwound after 28 days so they are, in effect, simply exchanges of assets with no increase in the monetary base.

Similarly, the federal government's infrastructure spending program should have no significant impact on inflation since government demand is replacing private sector demand. In other words, there is no increase in aggregate demand.

For inflation watchers, this should be good news. And it gets even better. In January, the bank said it expected inflation to return to the two-per-cent target in the first half of 2011 as the economy returns to its potential. It has since hinted that it might be later, sometime after mid-2011.

Variable rate mortgage rates are derived from the prime rate, which financial institutions usually, but not always, set in accordance with Bank of Canada interest rate adjustments. But negotiations on mortgage rates are getting tougher. Lenders are beginning to set variable rates at a premium over prime instead of the past practice of a discount to prime.

Fixed-rate mortgages are based on bond yields, which are market driven and largely independent of central bank moves. Higher yields increase funding costs for financial institutions which raise fixed mortgage rates in response.

As it happens, bond yields have been bumping record lows in a slumping economy, making fixed rate mortgages a better deal than they've been for decades.

So, variable or fixed? It's up to you.