Paul Vieira Financial Post March 7, 2011
OTTAWA — The improving economic backdrop has strengthened some economists’ view that the Bank of Canada will begin raising its benchmark rate in the – either in April or May – or at the very least in July, once the U.S. Federal Reserve is scheduled to end its US$600-billion asset purchase plan.
Not so the Bank of Nova Scotia. It is among the few research houses on Bay Street that believe the Bank of Canada, led by governor Mark Carney, will wait much longer – to October to be more precise. (Meanwhile, analysts at Capital Economics have reiterated their view the central bank remains on hold for all of 2010.) The main culprit: A weak U.S. dollar which could drive the loonie to US$1.08 by the end of the year.
Scotiabank economists Derek Holt and Gorica Djeric offered a detailed explanation of its view in a note to clients. Here is a summary of Scotiabank’s arguments:
• THE GREENBACK WILL KEEP SLIDING
Scotiabank is just plain bearish on the U.S. currency, as the Federal Reserve continues to pump cash into the system and keep its benchmark rate near zero. But the bank also believes there is a chance the White House further extends stimulus measures agreed upon late last year as opposed to allowing them expire – likely earning a rebuke from bond raters and fixed-income investors as Washington’s fiscal status would deteriorate further. That, in turn, would make the U.S. dollar even less favourable and likely adds to the loonie’s strength.
That could drive the loonie to as high as US1.08¢ by the end of 2011 — a full 12 cents above the most dovish view on the loonie, Scotia admits.
“This type of CAD strength imposes net tightening on the Canadian economy that we believe will do the Bank of Canada’s tightening for them. It is difficult to envision further Bank of Canada tightening when our expectation is that Canadian dollar will be lit up apart from what the Bank of Canada does.”
• GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE
Turmoil in North Africa and the Middle East, and the impact that is having on energy prices, justifies the central bank keeping its powder dry for now. “No one has a clue as to how various geopolitical developments … will fully unfold,” Scotiabank said.
Also lurking in the background is Europe’s sovereign debt worries, and what policy makers will eventually agree to at a summit late this month.
• ECONOMIC SLACK REMAINS WIDE
Despite the better-than-expected fourth-quarter growth data, it likely didn’t have much of an impact on the country’s output gap that according to the last Bank of Canada estimate stood at 1.9% of the economy, Scotiabank said. It added it foresees risks to demand growth from government spending cuts, high commodity prices and new mortgage rules.
Furthermore, recent historical evidence would suggest there is a weak link between a narrowing output gap and inflationary pressure, especially since the Bank of Canada adopted an inflation-targeting regime about 20 years ago.
• TIGHTENING ALREADY UNDERWAY
There are developments underway which have the same impact as a rate hike, from a higher Canadian dollar; tougher mortgage financing rules which begin to take effect this month; the withdrawal of government stimulus; and, eventually, higher bond yields which will translate into higher rates on consumer loans.
• DOVISH FED
Fed chairman Ben Bernanke continues to signal a cautious, dovish approach, with expectations rate hikes begin sometime next year. Raising rates in Canada now would just push an already strong loonie higher.
• INFLATION TARGETING REGIME
It is still not clear what the Bank of Canada’s inflation-targeting regime will look like once it is renewed at the end of the year. “Therefore, it’s not clear to us if the Bank of Canada hikes the minute its operational core target gets to 2% in this cycle or is expected to do so,” Scotiabank said.
• FEDERAL & PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS
It remains unclear about whether the federal parties go on an election campaign this year once the federal budget is tabled on March 22. Still, Scotiabank said the central bank has raised rates only once during an election campaign in the last 20 years – in 2006, when the strong economy justified a hike – and will likely show caution again. Compounding matters are a series of provincial elections due in 2011, including Ontario where incumbent Premier Dalton McGuinty has repeatedly voiced concern about rate hikes and the upward push it provides to the Canadian dollar.
http://business.financialpost.com/2011/03/07/why-the-boc-wont-raise-rates-until-october/
Friday, March 11, 2011
Central bank may still hike rates before summer
Andrew Pyle, On Friday March 4, 2011,
The Bank of Canada has now kept its official interest unchanged at 1 per cent for the fourth meeting.
Those with floating-rate debts will no doubt be relieved; however, economists were looking for a signal from Mr. Carney and crew that improving economic conditions were paving the way for a return to rate hikes sometime soon.
Had this week's policy meeting taken place a few weeks ago, it's likely we would have received that signal. Indeed, most indicators have pointed to stronger-than-expected activity in Canada and the U.S., while emerging economies have maintained a torrid pace of growth.
That would have been before the recent developments in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen and now Libya. The grassroots uprising against incumbent regimes might be welcome from a democratic ideal perspective, but it has created a rift in energy markets.
Crude awakening
After dipping briefly below $85/barrel in February, the price of crude oil has now broken above $100 for the first time since October 2008, testing $103.40 last week — the 61.8 per cent retracement mark from the July-December 2008 collapse.
A close above this level will increase the odds of a move to $120 (recall that $147.27 was the intraday high from July 2008). And if you thought the recent spike in pump prices was unnerving, gasoline futures have already crossed above the 61.8 per cent retracement level and are trading above three bucks (US) a gallon.
In July 2008, futures broke above $3.70/gallon. Even if prices simply hold near current levels, average pump prices in Canada could easily gravitate towards $1.30/litre. That's not good news for those planning to drive to their March break vacation spots, or for those returning snowbirds.
One might suspect the Bank of Canada would see the boost to inflation, that will come from commodities like oil and gasoline, as something that needs to be worked against through tighter monetary policy, but that's old school.
These commodities, like food (which is also seeing some inflation strain), are essentials and represent a significant share of our non-discretionary spending. Unless incomes rise by the same amount as the cost of these essentials, everything else being different, there will be less to spend on discretionary goods and services. In other words, real consumption growth in Canada could slow.
Not so fast
How much of a slowdown we experience in consumer spending (and let's throw in housing expenditures too), depends greatly on that above-mentioned phrase "all other things being equal."
If employment grows at a decent clip and wages go with it, then the affect on spending will be less pronounced. As of the end of 2010, average weekly earnings in Canada were up 4.5 per cent over the same period a year ago, which was the fourth-best growth rate in earnings since records started in the early 1990s.
To put this in perspective, when crude oil was climbing towards $150 back in the summer of 2008, weekly earnings growth was heading in the opposite direction.
There were other headwinds facing Canada back in 2008, including the cost of borrowing. When oil reached its peak, the 5-year conventional mortgage rate in Canada was above 7 per cent. Today, it sits near 5.5 per cent. The 1-year rate was also close to 7 per cent (yes, we had a very flat yield curve before the walls came tumbling in), compared to 3.5 per cent today.
Now, I'm not suggesting that we're going to stay in interest rate limbo forever, but the Canadian consumer is in better shape to handle higher pump prices today than back two years ago.
How long can they sit on the fence?
What the Bank of Canada has to be careful of here is the oil price shocks emanating from across the pond turn out to be temporary and there is no slowdown in consumption growth. Bank economists are already looking towards 2012 as the likely period where excess capacity in Canada's economy disappears and inflation returns to target (using the core inflation measure).
It is easy, however, to accelerate that trip back to zero excess and just as easy to push the economy into a situation of excess demand.
Coming back to the Bank's decision this week, it may have been surprising to see it lean against speculation of near-term tightening. But, it would be a mistake to assume the Bank can't and won't pull the trigger on rates before the summer.
There are two policy meetings left this half (April and May), so if Mr. Carney and crew wake up and realize there is too much potential inflation risk in leaving rates unchanged, they will need the April meeting to deliver the guidance towards a May rate hike — something economists thought was going to happen this week.
And if energy price shocks don't intensify and the Bank fails to deliver such guidance, don't be surprised if the bond market creates the guidance for them.
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/Central-bank-still-hike-rates-yahoofinanceca-1276928971.html
The Bank of Canada has now kept its official interest unchanged at 1 per cent for the fourth meeting.
Those with floating-rate debts will no doubt be relieved; however, economists were looking for a signal from Mr. Carney and crew that improving economic conditions were paving the way for a return to rate hikes sometime soon.
Had this week's policy meeting taken place a few weeks ago, it's likely we would have received that signal. Indeed, most indicators have pointed to stronger-than-expected activity in Canada and the U.S., while emerging economies have maintained a torrid pace of growth.
That would have been before the recent developments in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen and now Libya. The grassroots uprising against incumbent regimes might be welcome from a democratic ideal perspective, but it has created a rift in energy markets.
Crude awakening
After dipping briefly below $85/barrel in February, the price of crude oil has now broken above $100 for the first time since October 2008, testing $103.40 last week — the 61.8 per cent retracement mark from the July-December 2008 collapse.
A close above this level will increase the odds of a move to $120 (recall that $147.27 was the intraday high from July 2008). And if you thought the recent spike in pump prices was unnerving, gasoline futures have already crossed above the 61.8 per cent retracement level and are trading above three bucks (US) a gallon.
In July 2008, futures broke above $3.70/gallon. Even if prices simply hold near current levels, average pump prices in Canada could easily gravitate towards $1.30/litre. That's not good news for those planning to drive to their March break vacation spots, or for those returning snowbirds.
One might suspect the Bank of Canada would see the boost to inflation, that will come from commodities like oil and gasoline, as something that needs to be worked against through tighter monetary policy, but that's old school.
These commodities, like food (which is also seeing some inflation strain), are essentials and represent a significant share of our non-discretionary spending. Unless incomes rise by the same amount as the cost of these essentials, everything else being different, there will be less to spend on discretionary goods and services. In other words, real consumption growth in Canada could slow.
Not so fast
How much of a slowdown we experience in consumer spending (and let's throw in housing expenditures too), depends greatly on that above-mentioned phrase "all other things being equal."
If employment grows at a decent clip and wages go with it, then the affect on spending will be less pronounced. As of the end of 2010, average weekly earnings in Canada were up 4.5 per cent over the same period a year ago, which was the fourth-best growth rate in earnings since records started in the early 1990s.
To put this in perspective, when crude oil was climbing towards $150 back in the summer of 2008, weekly earnings growth was heading in the opposite direction.
There were other headwinds facing Canada back in 2008, including the cost of borrowing. When oil reached its peak, the 5-year conventional mortgage rate in Canada was above 7 per cent. Today, it sits near 5.5 per cent. The 1-year rate was also close to 7 per cent (yes, we had a very flat yield curve before the walls came tumbling in), compared to 3.5 per cent today.
Now, I'm not suggesting that we're going to stay in interest rate limbo forever, but the Canadian consumer is in better shape to handle higher pump prices today than back two years ago.
How long can they sit on the fence?
What the Bank of Canada has to be careful of here is the oil price shocks emanating from across the pond turn out to be temporary and there is no slowdown in consumption growth. Bank economists are already looking towards 2012 as the likely period where excess capacity in Canada's economy disappears and inflation returns to target (using the core inflation measure).
It is easy, however, to accelerate that trip back to zero excess and just as easy to push the economy into a situation of excess demand.
Coming back to the Bank's decision this week, it may have been surprising to see it lean against speculation of near-term tightening. But, it would be a mistake to assume the Bank can't and won't pull the trigger on rates before the summer.
There are two policy meetings left this half (April and May), so if Mr. Carney and crew wake up and realize there is too much potential inflation risk in leaving rates unchanged, they will need the April meeting to deliver the guidance towards a May rate hike — something economists thought was going to happen this week.
And if energy price shocks don't intensify and the Bank fails to deliver such guidance, don't be surprised if the bond market creates the guidance for them.
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/Central-bank-still-hike-rates-yahoofinanceca-1276928971.html
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Reno coach keeps projects in the ballpark
Planning her first major home renovation in the summer of 2009, Tina Davies felt like she was awaiting her first baby: excited, nervous and not sure what to expect.
The project would plunge the Toronto makeup artist’s household into chaos for five months, but once it was done, her family of three would have a new kitchen and bathrooms, updated plumbing and electrical systems and upgrades to the entire interior, from new floors to freshly plastered ceilings.
With $350,000 on the line, however, Ms. Davies wasn’t impressed by the vague quotes and sparse details being offered by the first three contractors she approached, whose contracts were so unprofessional, they looked as though they’d been drawn up “on paper napkins.”
Was this normal? She wasn’t sure. She’d never done this before.
“As a homeowner, you’re just really at the mercy of these contractors and you don’t know their language or what is the proper way to have something done,” Ms. Davies said. “You’re so overwhelmed and confused and you want to make sure you don’t do the wrong thing.”
She figured she needed help from someone knowledgeable and impartial, who understood how the industry worked. Then she heard about reno coaching, a relatively new service where, for $75-$100 an hour, a project manager would come to her house and help her draw up a budget and advise her whether her project was practical and affordable – think Mike Holmes meets Gail Vaz-Oxlade, but with the aim of preventing expensive mistakes.
The reno adviser she hired, Jay Charendoff of House Calls Project Management, “was really good about advising us about what to do before you get into it,” said Ms. Davies, adding that once she found a reputable contractor, he went through the contract line by line and highlighted problem areas.
“It’s just nice to know that there’s somebody on your side,” she said.
Mr. Charendoff, who has a degree in architecture and is a LEED-affiliated professional, launched his business four years ago and is among a handful of professionals offering reno advice in Canada.
It’s a service that is starting to catch on due to a new consumer awareness about the financial risks of renovating, says Carl Mascarenhas, president of eRenovate Inc. With the housing market cooling, he says, it’s no longer a given that property values will rise and homeowners will recoup their costs; they are more cautious now.
As with any new industry, Mr. Mascarenhas says it’s buyer beware when hiring a renovation adviser. As demand for the service increases, opportunists will emerge, he says. “There’s still a bit of caution for consumers to really weigh out the role the professional is playing and that they have the right credentials or experience to do so.”
Home renovations are big business in Canada. According to a survey by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., Canadians spent $25.8-billion on home renovations in 2009, with the average project costing about $12,100. Of those 2.1 million households, 35 per cent said they went over budget.
“People don’t really know how much things are going to cost,” Mr. Charendoff says. “People sometimes have a general idea of what they want to do, but in this business, it’s really about the details.”
In addition to budgeting advice, Mr. Charendoff also looks at housing market conditions and gives homeowners straight talk if he thinks they are not making a good investment.
Such was the case for Karen Weinthall, who asked for advice while planning a major kitchen renovation on her 1920s Toronto home. After inspecting the property, Mr. Charendoff told Ms. Weinthall that her house, which was built on top of a steep hill, was slowly sinking into the ground.
He looked at the kitchen and looked at the floor and said you really are not going to be able to do that without a huge structural job. So I moved,” Ms. Weinthall said with a laugh.
“If we had just gone ahead and hired a contractor to do the kitchen, at what point in that proceeding would we have found out what a big problem it was?”
Mr. Charendoff says a reno adviser acts as a middleman between the homeowner and the contractor, whose main objective is sales. “The hat that I wear is really a different hat – it’s what advice and guidance can I offer to this owner that’s going to be a wise financial decision.”
Lisa Rapoport, a partner at Plant Architect Inc. in Toronto, is skeptical of the reno coaching trend and says any good designer or contractor will offer the same advice, and will be able to help clients find savings to match their budgets. “Just providing that kind of middleman service sounds like an extra cost, and I guess if you’re going to pay the extra cost, I’d rather put it into a good contractor,” she said.
Finding a good contractor requires a bit of homework, says Mr. Mascarenhas. He recommends consumers begin by doing some research on the CHMC and Better Business Bureau websites, and read consumer reviews on sites like HomeStars.com and casaGURU.com.
For Ron Singer, hiring a reno adviser was certainly a wise financial decision. In the midst of constructing a $30,000 art studio for his wife, he began to have some doubts about whether the contractor was putting in adequate insulation. The adviser confirmed his doubts, and he was able to have the contractor fix the problem on the spot.
“As far as I’m concerned, hiring someone for a couple of hundred in order to ultimately save down the road in terms of either repairs or things that go wrong, is certainly worth it,” Mr. Singer said. “We now have without a doubt the best constructed, best insulated studio one can have.”
The pre-reno checklist
1. Know the rules. Building codes and local by-laws may limit what and how you renovate. There’s nothing worse than discovering the project you’ve painstakingly planned is not allowed. Talk to your municipal building department and find out about zoning and permits.
2. Know what’s possible. Your home’s heating, plumbing and electrical systems will also affect how you can renovate. For big projects, it’s wise to check with an architect, home inspector or contractor before you begin.
3. Create a budget. Doing a detailed financial analysis of your project in advance of the physical design allows you to evaluate your situation and study a variety of options well before you get to the construction stage. It’s a low-cost exercise that allows you to clarify your needs versus your wants.
4. Do the math. Get quotes from at least two reputable local renovators, architectural firms or material suppliers. Take the most reasonable quote and add 10 to 15 per cent for unexpected costs.
5. Spend wisely. If you need financing, you may be able to renegotiate your mortgage or apply for a personal loan to cover the cost of the reno. You may even be eligible for assistance, as some utilities and governments offer incentive programs for energy-efficiency upgrades.
Sources: Dianne Nice, CMHC, House Calls Project Management
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/reno-coach-keeps-projects-in-the-ballpark/article1924599/
The project would plunge the Toronto makeup artist’s household into chaos for five months, but once it was done, her family of three would have a new kitchen and bathrooms, updated plumbing and electrical systems and upgrades to the entire interior, from new floors to freshly plastered ceilings.
With $350,000 on the line, however, Ms. Davies wasn’t impressed by the vague quotes and sparse details being offered by the first three contractors she approached, whose contracts were so unprofessional, they looked as though they’d been drawn up “on paper napkins.”
Was this normal? She wasn’t sure. She’d never done this before.
“As a homeowner, you’re just really at the mercy of these contractors and you don’t know their language or what is the proper way to have something done,” Ms. Davies said. “You’re so overwhelmed and confused and you want to make sure you don’t do the wrong thing.”
She figured she needed help from someone knowledgeable and impartial, who understood how the industry worked. Then she heard about reno coaching, a relatively new service where, for $75-$100 an hour, a project manager would come to her house and help her draw up a budget and advise her whether her project was practical and affordable – think Mike Holmes meets Gail Vaz-Oxlade, but with the aim of preventing expensive mistakes.
The reno adviser she hired, Jay Charendoff of House Calls Project Management, “was really good about advising us about what to do before you get into it,” said Ms. Davies, adding that once she found a reputable contractor, he went through the contract line by line and highlighted problem areas.
“It’s just nice to know that there’s somebody on your side,” she said.
Mr. Charendoff, who has a degree in architecture and is a LEED-affiliated professional, launched his business four years ago and is among a handful of professionals offering reno advice in Canada.
It’s a service that is starting to catch on due to a new consumer awareness about the financial risks of renovating, says Carl Mascarenhas, president of eRenovate Inc. With the housing market cooling, he says, it’s no longer a given that property values will rise and homeowners will recoup their costs; they are more cautious now.
As with any new industry, Mr. Mascarenhas says it’s buyer beware when hiring a renovation adviser. As demand for the service increases, opportunists will emerge, he says. “There’s still a bit of caution for consumers to really weigh out the role the professional is playing and that they have the right credentials or experience to do so.”
Home renovations are big business in Canada. According to a survey by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., Canadians spent $25.8-billion on home renovations in 2009, with the average project costing about $12,100. Of those 2.1 million households, 35 per cent said they went over budget.
“People don’t really know how much things are going to cost,” Mr. Charendoff says. “People sometimes have a general idea of what they want to do, but in this business, it’s really about the details.”
In addition to budgeting advice, Mr. Charendoff also looks at housing market conditions and gives homeowners straight talk if he thinks they are not making a good investment.
Such was the case for Karen Weinthall, who asked for advice while planning a major kitchen renovation on her 1920s Toronto home. After inspecting the property, Mr. Charendoff told Ms. Weinthall that her house, which was built on top of a steep hill, was slowly sinking into the ground.
He looked at the kitchen and looked at the floor and said you really are not going to be able to do that without a huge structural job. So I moved,” Ms. Weinthall said with a laugh.
“If we had just gone ahead and hired a contractor to do the kitchen, at what point in that proceeding would we have found out what a big problem it was?”
Mr. Charendoff says a reno adviser acts as a middleman between the homeowner and the contractor, whose main objective is sales. “The hat that I wear is really a different hat – it’s what advice and guidance can I offer to this owner that’s going to be a wise financial decision.”
Lisa Rapoport, a partner at Plant Architect Inc. in Toronto, is skeptical of the reno coaching trend and says any good designer or contractor will offer the same advice, and will be able to help clients find savings to match their budgets. “Just providing that kind of middleman service sounds like an extra cost, and I guess if you’re going to pay the extra cost, I’d rather put it into a good contractor,” she said.
Finding a good contractor requires a bit of homework, says Mr. Mascarenhas. He recommends consumers begin by doing some research on the CHMC and Better Business Bureau websites, and read consumer reviews on sites like HomeStars.com and casaGURU.com.
For Ron Singer, hiring a reno adviser was certainly a wise financial decision. In the midst of constructing a $30,000 art studio for his wife, he began to have some doubts about whether the contractor was putting in adequate insulation. The adviser confirmed his doubts, and he was able to have the contractor fix the problem on the spot.
“As far as I’m concerned, hiring someone for a couple of hundred in order to ultimately save down the road in terms of either repairs or things that go wrong, is certainly worth it,” Mr. Singer said. “We now have without a doubt the best constructed, best insulated studio one can have.”
The pre-reno checklist
1. Know the rules. Building codes and local by-laws may limit what and how you renovate. There’s nothing worse than discovering the project you’ve painstakingly planned is not allowed. Talk to your municipal building department and find out about zoning and permits.
2. Know what’s possible. Your home’s heating, plumbing and electrical systems will also affect how you can renovate. For big projects, it’s wise to check with an architect, home inspector or contractor before you begin.
3. Create a budget. Doing a detailed financial analysis of your project in advance of the physical design allows you to evaluate your situation and study a variety of options well before you get to the construction stage. It’s a low-cost exercise that allows you to clarify your needs versus your wants.
4. Do the math. Get quotes from at least two reputable local renovators, architectural firms or material suppliers. Take the most reasonable quote and add 10 to 15 per cent for unexpected costs.
5. Spend wisely. If you need financing, you may be able to renegotiate your mortgage or apply for a personal loan to cover the cost of the reno. You may even be eligible for assistance, as some utilities and governments offer incentive programs for energy-efficiency upgrades.
Sources: Dianne Nice, CMHC, House Calls Project Management
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/reno-coach-keeps-projects-in-the-ballpark/article1924599/
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